The 2022 NFL Playoffs begin Saturday, January 15, with the wild-card round, so we are taking a closer look at the AFC East showdown from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo to get you the best Patriots vs. Bills betting pick and odds.
New England and Buffalo meet for the third time this season after splitting their two-game regular-season series. The Pats won 14-10 as 3-point road dogs in Week 13, while the Bills responded with a 33-21 victory as 1-point road underdogs in Week 16. Buffalo is a 4-point home fave this time around, and the totals are listed at 43.0 points on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Pats dropped three of their last four games
Since that narrow win at Highmark Stadium in Week 13, New England has gone only 1-3 straight up and ATS. The Patriots finished second in the AFC East with a 10-7 record, allowing the Bills to grab their second consecutive division title.
After a 50-10 dismantling of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17, the Pats wrapped up the regular season with a 33-24 loss at the Miami Dolphins. New England outgained Miami 379-298 but lost the turnover battle 3-0.
Rookie signal-caller Mac Jones accounted for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2021. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combined for 1535 rushing yards, while Jakobi Meyers had 83 catches for 866 yards and a couple of scores. Tight end Hunter Henry has been a primary target in the end zone, posting 50 catches for 603 yards and nine touchdowns.
However, Henry hasn’t scored in five of his last six outings. He missed the first duel with the Bills and had only one reception for nine yards in that heavy home loss to Buffalo. The Pats allowed 428 total yards to the Bills in Week 16, while Mac Jones went only 14-of-32 for 145 yards and a couple of interceptions.
The Bills eye their fifth straight win
The Buffalo Bills are riding a four-game winning streak following a 27-10 home victory to the New York Jets in the ultimate week of the 2021 NFL season. They managed to cover a massive 16-point spread, so the Bills are 3-0-1 ATS over their previous four showings.
Devin Singletary scored a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter to seal the victory over the Jets, while Josh Allen completed only 24 of his 45 passing attempts for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Bills held the Jets to a paltry 53 yards while racking up 424 in a return.
Allen finished the regular season with 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He also had 122 carries for 763 yards and six scores. Singletary added 188 totes for 870 yards and seven touchdowns, while Stefon Diggs led the way for the Bills’ receiving corps with 103 catches for 1,225 yards and ten touchdowns.
Buffalo has allowed only 60 points in its last four games. The Bills led the NFL in 2021 in both scoring defense (17.0 PPG) and total defense (272.8 YPG).
- 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games overall
- 10-4 ATS in the last 14 playoff games
- 1-7 ATS in the last eight home games against New England
- 2-5 ATS in the last seven playoff games
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
The clash between the Pats and Bills kicks off at 8:15 PM ET with a freezing temperature, so I’m expecting a hard-fought battle between a couple of excellent defensive teams. I’ve mentioned the Bills’ numbers, while the Patriots finished the regular season second in points allowed per game (17.8) and fourth in total yards allowed per contest (310.8).
Hereof, I have to take the underdogs to cover a 4-point spread. Bill Belichick knows his team needs to exploit Buffalo’s run D that yields 109.8 yards per game (13th in the NFL). If the Patriots find a way to establish their ground game, they’ll keep it close.
Pick: Take New England Patriots +4.0 at -110
Despite a low number, betting on the under seems like a way to go in this AFC wild-card matchup. On a freezing night, both teams will lean on their defense to make the difference. The Patriots will certainly try to run the pigskin as much as they can and try to keep Josh Allen on the sidelines. On the other side, the Bills will have to find the right balance, as the Pats’ front seven is capable of holding Josh Allen in check.
The under is 4-1 in New England’s last five contests on the road, and it is 4-1 in the previous five encounters between the Pats and Bills in Buffalo.
Pick: Go under 43.0 points at -110