Taking the field at 1:00 on Sunday, December 31st is the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. This game will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park NY. Carrying the game on television is CBS. In this AFC East matchup, the Bills are heading in as 12 point home favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. Will they manage to win at home and cover?
New England Patriots Preview
As they get ready to face the Bills, the Patriots carry in a 4-11 record. Within the AFC-East, they are currently in 4th place and are positioned 16th in the AFC overall. New England’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at -7.3. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 4-10-1.
The Patriots were able to recover from being held scoreless in the first quarter to still pick up the win. For the game, the Patriots converted 23.1% of their third downs, and finished with 289 yards of total offense. On the other side, the Broncos ended the game with 276 yards of offense. New England went into the game as the underdog (+7), giving them a straight-up and ATS win. Bailey Zappe threw for 256 yards while completing 75% of his passes and throwing for 256. Zappe threw for two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Taking on the Patriots, the Bills will look to improve on their record of 9-6. This mark has them in 2nd in the AFC-East and 6th in the AFC. The Bills’ current scoring margin for the season stands at +8.5, contributing to their ATS record of 6-9.
In their 24-22 win over the Chargers, the Bills actually trailed at halftime by a score 14-14 before making a second-half comeback. For the game, the Bills’ offense averaged 6 yards per play compared to the Chargers at 4. The Chargers went 5/14 on third down. Even though Buffalo won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 12.5 point favorites. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for one touchdown and ran for 2 scores. Allen completed 71% of his passes for 237 yards.
The Patriots came out on top with a 29-25 win in their initial matchup against Bills. Going into the game, it was the Patriots who were the underdogs with a +7.5 point spread, and they secured an ATS win. The over/under line going into the game was 41 points, which the teams surpassed.
Bills vs. Patriots Odds Analysis
On the moneyline, the Bills have shifted from where they opened at -620 to -736, putting their implied win probability at 88%. The oddsmakers currently have the Patriots price at +482 with an implied win probability of 17. The Patriots opened at +455 on the moneyline.
There has been a movement in the over/under market since its opening at 40, with the current value at 41.
The point spread has seen minimal changes, with the current lines staying close to the initial values. Buffalo is currently the favorite by 12 (-110), and New England stands at +12 (-110).
How to Bet Bills vs. Patriots in New York
Despite being 12-point underdogs at away, New England’s pass defense look good against Denver’s in their last game. I like their chances to cover vs. Buffalo.
With the over/under line sitting at 41, my bet is to take the over. So far, Buffalo have combined with their opponents to average 45.3 points per game, look for this game to surpass 41.
- SportsBettingNY ATS Prediction: Patriots +12
- SportsBettingNY OU Predict: Over 41