Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season wraps up with Monday Night Football at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, so we bring you the best Patriots vs. Bills betting pick and odds along with the latest team stats, news, and betting trends.
New England faces off against Buffalo for the first time in 2021. Last year, the Bills swept the Pats while going 1-1 against the spread. Buffalo is a small 2.5-point fave for Monday’s game at home, while New England is a +125 moneyline dog with a total of 43.0 points on WynnBet Sportsbook.
The Pats hammered Tennessee for their sixth straight win
The New England Patriots improved to 8-4 SU and ATS on the season following a 36-13 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans in Week 12. The Pats put on another strong performance on both sides of the ball, extending their SU and ATS winning streak to six games.
Rookie QB Mac Jones continues to impress. He completed 23 of his 32 pass attempts for 310 yards and a couple of touchdowns against the Titans. Jones has thrown for seven touchdowns and a couple of interceptions over the last four weeks, and the Patriots have outscored their rivals 130-26.
New England continues to lean on its stout defense that allows the fewest points per game in the NFL (15.8). The Patriots rank 20th in rushing yards allowed (115.8) and third in passing yards allowed per contest (200.9).
The Bills trounced New Orleans on Thanksgiving
The Buffalo Bills bounced back from a shocking 41-15 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. Playing on a short week, the Bills smashed the New Orleans Saints 31-6 on Thanksgiving and easily covered a seven-point spread on the road.
Josh Allen had some ups and downs against the Saints, finishing 23-of-28 for 260 yards, four touchdowns, and a couple of interceptions. The Bills shut down the Saints’ injury-depleted offense and held their rivals to a paltry 190 all-purpose yards.
Allen has tossed a whopping seven interceptions over the last four weeks. He’s also failed to score on his own in that span, tallying 114 rushing yards on 17 totes. The Bills are now tallying 29.6 points per game (tied-2nd in the NFL) while surrendering 16.5 in a return (2nd).
Trends:
New England:
- 6-0 ATS in the last six games overall
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games on the road
Buffalo:
- 3-6 ATS in the last nine games against New England
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Picks
The Pats have been unstoppable as of late, and I would take them as 3-point underdogs in this tough road matchup with the Bills, who certainly possess defensive firepower to deal with New England’s offense.
Mac Jones could be under huge pressure, but Josh Allen will have a tall task as well. The Pats’ defense has been destroying its opponents since Week 7, and Allen is 2-3 with seven TD passes and six interceptions in five dates with New England. Monday’s clash should be decided down the stretch, and the Patriots have covered in six straight outings.
Pick: Take New England Patriots +3.0 at -110
The Total:
When the top two scoring defenses in the league take on each other, it’s hard to take the over on the totals no matter how good their offensive units are. The under backers also need a bit of luck, as a couple of pick-sixes in this matchup won’t surprise anybody.
The over is 6-2 in New England’s last eight showings, while the under is 3-2 in Buffalo’s last five and 3-2-1 in the previous six meetings between the Bills and Patriots. I’m not expecting a high-scoring MNF this time around, but the line has been set pretty low.
Pick: Go under 43.0 points at -110
