Texas and New York close down their three-game interleague series at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Sunday afternoon, so we bring you the best Rangers vs. Mets betting pick along with the latest odds update on Caesars Sportsbook.Â
Saturday’s middle game of the series has been excluded from the analysis, while the Mets outlasted the Rangers 4-3 in Friday’s opener. New York is a -145 home fave for the series finale, while the totals opened at 8.5 runs.
The Rangers’ on-off form continues                                         Â
The Texas Rangers dropped to 36-39 following Friday’s defeat at the Mets. It was their second loss in a row and sixth in their previous 11 games overall, as the Rangers continue to play in a shaky form. Texas was four games behind the bottom wild card in the American League on Saturday, and the Rangers desperately need to start winning in sequences.
Jon Gray will toe the slab Sunday at Citi Field and shoot for his fourth consecutive win. In his last three starts, the 30-year-old righty outplayed the Tigers, Phillies, and Royals while surrendering only three runs on 14 hits across 19.2 innings of work.
Since surrendering five earned runs through five frames in a 6-3 defeat at the Cleveland Guardians on June 7, Gray has accounted for a shiny 1.40 ERA and 2.19 FIP across 25.2 innings of work (four starts). He’s 4-3 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 76/25 K/BB ratio in 13 starts (71.2 innings) in 2022.
The Mets snapped their skid behind David Peterson’s strong display         Â
The New York Mets put an end to their three-game losing streak with that 4-3 victory over the Rangers, improving their record to 48-29 for the season. David Peterson fanned ten across six innings of a three-run, five-hit ball, while Eduardo Escobar belted a tiebreaking three-run homer in the bottom of the fourth.
Carlos Carrasco will toe the rubber Sunday and try to right the ship following a few disastrous outings. The 35-year-old right-hander has allowed a whopping 19 earned runs on 27 hits and eight walks in his previous four starts and 17.2 frames of work.
Carrasco has been charged for a loss in each of his previous two starts (6.2 innings), surrendering 11 runs on ten hits to the Houston Astros. He’s now 8-4 with an underwhelming 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 15 starts (81.2 innings) in 2022.
Trends:
Texas:
- 3-7 in the last ten games against the Mets
NY Mets:
- 14-4 in the last 18 games at home
- 5-2 in the last seven home games against Texas
Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets Pick
I’m going with the Mets despite Carlos Carrasco’s poor run of form. The veteran righty can only do better than he did against the Astros, and the current Rangers lineup has just nine hits and a .464 OPS in 62 at-bats against Carrasco.
On the other side, the current Mets have 15 hits, four home runs, a .378 on-base percentage, and 1.192 OPS across 67 at-bats versus Jon Gray. New York owns a poor .614 OPS in its last 11 outings, but the Mets are certainly a better offensive team than the Tigers and Royals, whom Gray dominated in June.
Pick: Take New York Mets at -145
The Total:
Both bullpens have done a good job in the last ten days. The Rangers have recorded a shiny 1.39 ERA and .188 BABIP, while the Mets have compiled a 2.49 ERA, .275 BABIP, and 10.4 K/9. The starting duo is a bit of a wild card in Sunday’s matchup, but I’m expecting a solid performance from the Rangers’ and Mets’ pitching staff.
The under is 6-3 in Texas’ previous nine games overall, and it is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rangers and Mets, excluding their Saturday duel.
Pick: Go under 8.5 runs at -115
