The Baltimore Orioles face off against the New York Yankees in the middle contest of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium in New York, so we’re taking a closer look at this Saturday afternoon’s AL East showdown with the first pitch at 1:05 PM ET.
The Yankees are firm favorites on most sportsbooks, while the totals sit at 9.5 runs. New York has won eight of its first 13 meetings with Baltimore in 2021 (Friday’s game has been excluded), and the Yankees desperately need to improve this record.
The Orioles started September with a tough loss in Toronto
The Baltimore Orioles ended August with a surprising 4-2 victory in the middle clash of a three-game set at Rogers Centre in Toronto to snap a four-game losing streak and improve to 41-91 on the season. They were still the worst team in the majors by far, and the O’s returned to the losing ways last Thursday with a 5-4 defeat at the Jays.
The Orioles’ pitching staff has been a massive issue all season long, and over the last couple of weeks, Baltimore has registered the second-highest ERA in baseball (5.77) to go with a .250 batting average against. Chris Ellis will get the nod Saturday, his third since he joined the O’s in August, and the 28-year-old righty has allowed four earned runs over his previous two outings and 7.2 innings of work.
Last Sunday, Ellis got the Blue Jays on the road and took a no-decision in a 7-3 loss. He tossed 4.2 innings of a two-hit, one-run ball while punching out two.
The Yankees defend the top wild card
The New York Yankees stopped their four-game slide last Wednesday and improved to 77-56 on the season with a 4-1 victory at the Los Angeles Angels. Gerrit Cole fanned 15 through seven innings of work, while Luke Voit put the Yanks on the scoreboard with a two-run single in the top of the third.
The Yankees were six and a half games behind the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, but they held the top wild card in the American League, a game and a half ahead of Boston and two ahead of Oakland.
Jordan Montgomery (5-5; 3.52 ERA) will toe the slab Saturday at Yankee Stadium, and the 28-year-old lefty has been outstanding over his previous six starts, posting a sparkly 1.44 ERA and a 27/11 K/BB ratio across 31.1 innings of work.
Montgomery is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts against the Orioles this season. Through 14 innings of work, he’s allowed seven runs on 16 hit and three walks while punching out 12.
Trends:
Baltimore:
- 3-24 in the last 27 games overall
- 1-11 in the last 12 games on the road
NY Yankees:
- 12-5 in the last 17 games against Baltimore
- 14-4 in the last 18 games overall
- 4-1 in Jordan Montgomery’s last five starts
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Pick
The Yankees’ pitching staff is doing a great job, and in the past two weeks, the Yanks have compiled a 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a .206 batting average against. Jordan Montgomery has played very well lately, so I’m comfortable with the Yankees’ run-line here.
Back in August, the Yankees beat the O’s in a three-game set in New York. After a 7-1 defeat in the opener, the Yanks thrashed off the Orioles 13-1 and 10-3.
Pick: Take New York Yankees -1.5 at -130
The Total:
The Yankees bullpen has registered a nice 2.70 ERA and 3.31 FIP in the last two weeks of action, while the Orioles bullpen has posted a 5.47 ERA and 4.41 FIP in that span. The totals are a tricky wager, as the Yanks could smash the Orioles’ pitching staff, while the visitors might struggle to hit against New York.
The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Orioles and Yankees. New York has a .789 OPS in the past two weeks, while Baltimore has .776 OPS, so I’m sticking with the H2H betting trend.
Pick: Go over 9.5 runs at -125
