The New York Yankees are a pick’em tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays, meaning there is a 50% chance the Bombers will prevail with the victory. Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees. Jose Berrios will pitch for Toronto.
Berrios, a former Minnesota Twins ace, is 10-7 with a 3.55 earned run average and a 1.11 WHIP. Cortes is 2-2 with a 2.67 earned run average, a 1.08 WHIP and 71 total strikeouts. The game’s over/under run total is nine runs. Let’s take a look at the best approach to handicapping tonight’s Yankees game.
Toronto Run Line or Moneyline? That is the Question
Though this game will be played in Yankee Stadium and the Bombers are 10 games over .500 on their home field, the Blue Jays are likely to win this game. The Jays have more than enough righthanded power hitters to take Cortes deep in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. Cortes, a lefty without much heat, will have to paint the corners to give the Yankees a chance tonight.
Making matters worse for the Yankees is the fact that they will have to face Berrios. Though Berrios doesn’t receive much attention from the mainstream baseball media, he is a stud of a pitcher.
Berrios will pitch against an ice cold Yankee lineup that is batting .207 in its past 10 games. The Yanks have been outscored by 18 runs in this period of time. The team’s 2-8 skid in its last 10 games is all the worse when juxtaposed with the Blue Jays’ performance in those games. The Jays are batting .272 in that stretch, outscoring opposing squads by an impressive 30 runs. The Jays are simply too hot of a team to bet against. Add in the fact that Cortes is likely to regress to the mean after a strong string of appearances and a win for the Jays looks that much more likely.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-114)
There is a good chance the Yankees will lose this game. The Bombers haven’t seen Berrios’ stuff yet this season. The lack of familiarity with Berrios’ arsenal will likely lead to a Blue Jays victory. A small wager on the Jays’ moneyline appears to be the best play tonight.