The New York Mets meet the Miami Marlins for the closing contest of their three-game series at LoanDepot Park in Miami, so we’re taking a closer look at this NL East showdown to get you the best Mets vs. Marlins betting pick and odds.
The first pitch is set for Thursday, September 9, 2021, at 6:40 PM ET, and the Mets opened as -155 road favorites at most upstate Ny Sportsbooks. The Marlins are +143 moneyline dogs, while the totals sit at 8.0 runs.
The Mets topped the Marlins in the opener
Excluding the middle game of this series, the New York Mets have won seven of their first 13 encounters with the Marlins in 2021, including four of their previous five meetings. The Mets beat Miami 9-4 this past Tuesday even though they had just six hits, as Pete Alonso went yard twice and drove in three runs, while the Mets bullpen shut down the Marlins.
New York has scored 49 runs in its last eight outings, tallying an excellent .286/.349/.500 batting line. On the pitching side of things, the Mets have compiled a nice 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a .220 batting average against over the last couple of weeks.
Marcus Stroman will get the nod Thursday in Miami, and he’s 9-12 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts this season (156.2 innings pitched). The 30-year-old right-hander has registered a 3.75 ERA over his previous four outings, allowing a .658 OPS and a .303 BABIP to his opponents.
The Marlins’ offensive woes continue
The Miami Marlins fell to 57-81 on the season following that 9-4 defeat to the Mets, tallying their fourth loss in the last six outings. During that stretch, the Marlins have scored 24 runs while posting a terrible .199/.270/.322 slash line. Miami owns the fourth-lowest scoring offense in baseball, averaging just 3.97 runs per game.
The Marlins’ pitching staff has done a superb job in the last couple of weeks, registering the second-lowest ERA in baseball (3.07) to go with a 1.07 WHIP and a .222 batting average against. Jesus Luzardo will get the starting call Thursday, and he’s 3-3 with an awful 7.15 ERA in seven starts since joining Miami last month.
Luzardo met the Mets on August 2 and gave up three earned runs on four hits and three walks through five frames while picking up a win in a 6-3 home victory. Last time out, the 23-year-old lefty has tossed 5.2 innings of a three-run ball in a 10-3 win to Philadelphia, settling down with a no-decision.
Trends:
NY Mets:
- 4-1 in Marcus Stroman’s last five starts
- 8-2 in the last ten games overall
Miami:
- 6-13 in the last 19 games overall
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick
Marcus Stroman has met the Marlins twice in 2021. He’s allowed a couple of earned runs on seven hits across 6.1 innings, getting a no-decision on both occasions. Stroman has been solid all season and should be fine against this Miami lineup, so I’m backing the Mets to win, hoping for another strong performance at the plate.
I don’t trust Jesus Luzardo at all. He’s allowed a whopping 17 earned runs on 26 hits and 13 walks over his previous five starts and 24.1 innings of work. The Mets desperately need a win, as they trailed the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves by four games on Wednesday.
Pick: Take New York Mets at -155
The Total:
The Marlins’ relievers are pretty unpredictable. They’ve had a lot of ups and downs in 2021, and in the last two weeks of action, the Marlins bullpen boasts the lowest ERA in the majors (1.35). On the other side, the Mets bullpen has a 2.76 ERA in that span, so I’m backing the under on the totals.
LoanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and leads the majors in 2021. Therefore, both teams will struggle offensively if their pitchers continue to play in a good form.
Pick: Go under 8.0 runs at -125
