At 8:20 ET, the Bills and Dolphins clash at Hard Rock Stadium for a week 18 NFL matchup. Catch the action on NBC, with the game set for Sunday, January 7th. The Bills head into the game as the 3 point favorite to pick up the win. If you’re interested, you can bet this game at BetMGM. I’ve handicapped this game for you, keep reading to get my analysis of this matchup.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Going into this week 18 AFC matchup, the Bills have an overall record of 10-6. In the AFC-East standings, the Bills are in 2nd place and 6th in the AFC. So far, they have gone 6-5 against AFC opponents and 3-4 on the road. Taking a look at the Bills’ scoring margin this season, it is currently at +8.3. This has resulted in an ATS record of 6-10.
The Bills had a strong offensive start, scoring 13 points in the first quarter. They ended the game with a total of 281 yards, while the Patriots managed 294 yards. Even though Buffalo won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 14.5 point favorites. Even though Josh Allen did not throw for a touchdown, he ran for two scores and threw for 169 yards on 30 attempts.
Miami Dolphins Preview
Heading into week 18, the Dolphins are 1st in the AFC-East on a record of 11-5. When comparing their mark to other teams in the AFC, they are 2nd. So far, they have gone 7-1 at home and 4-4 on the road. When it comes to the spread, the Dolphins come in at 10-6. Going into week 18, their scoring margin per game is +7.
The Dolphins had a strong offensive start, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. They ended the game with a total of 375 yards, while the Ravens managed 491 yards. Miami’s 37 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3 point underdogs. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 237 yards while completing 57% of his passes and throwing for 237. Tagovailoa threw for two touchdowns.
The first matchup between the teams saw, the Bills win with a 48-20 score over Dolphins. On the point-spread, the Bills went in as the favorite (-3) and they secured a 28 point win, picking up an ATS win. When the game started, the over/under line was 52.5 points, and both teams managed to surpass it.
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds Analysis
Regarding the current moneyline odds, Buffalo is currently given a 62% chance of winning, along with a moneyline payout of -163. On the other hand, the Dolphins’ implied win percentage is 43% with a moneyline of +135.
The over/under market has undergone changes since its opening at 49, currently situated at 50.
Since the lines have opened, Miami has moved from -1.5 point favorites to their current line of +3 (-110). Buffalo is currently -3 (-110) point underdogs on the road.
How to Bet Dolphins vs. Bills in New York
Considering Buffalo’s recent struggles in the passing game against New England, I’m not optimistic about a sudden change. That’s why I’m liking Miami as 3-point underdogs.
With the over/under line at 50, I’m backing the over for this game. Miami games have produced an average combined score of 53.2 points, and I expect this game to go over 50.
- SportsBettingNY ATS Prediction: Dolphins +3
- SportsBettingNY OU Predict: Over 50