The NFL betting action continues with Week 11 matchups on Sunday, November 21, so we’re taking a closer look at the AFC showdown from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park to get you the best Colts vs. Bills betting pick and odds.
We’ll see a rematch of the 2021 AFC Wild Card Game, and the Colts will seek revenge for a tough 27-24 defeat at the Bills. Indy opened as a 7.5-point road underdog for this one, while Buffalo is a -320 moneyline fave with a total of 50.0 points on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Colts look for their third straight win
The Indianapolis Colts (5-5; 6-4 ATS) closed down a three-game homestand in Week 10, outlasting the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17 as 10.5-point home favorites. It was their second win in a row and fourth over their previous five outings.
Jonathan Taylor led the way for Indianapolis last weekend, tallying 21 carries for 116 yards and a TD. Taylor is enjoying a wonderful season, and in his previous five showings, Jonathan has scored seven rushing touchdowns.
The Colts are scoring 26.8 points per game (8th in the NFL) on 136.3 rushing yards (6th) and 227.1 passing yards (22nd). They are yielding 23.0 points in a return (13th) on 113.7 rushing yards (17th) and 249.9 passing yards (tied-19th).
The Bills trounced the Jets in Week 10
The Buffalo Bills improved to 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS on the season following a 45-17 thrashing of the New York Jets this past Sunday. They bounced back from an embarrassing 9-6 defeat at Jacksonville in Week 9, recording their second victory in the last four outings.
The Bills bullied the Jets, picking off Mike White four times, while Buffalo’s offense posted 489 total yards. Josh Allen went 21-of-28 for 366 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while Stefon Diggs caught eight of his 13 targets for 162 yards and a TD.
Buffalo ran 24 times for 139 yards against the Jets, scoring four rushing touchdowns in the process. The Bills are now tallying 31.1 points per game (2nd in the NFL) on 121.9 rushing yards (10th) and 279.2 passing yards (6th).
Trends:
Indianapolis:
- 5-2 ATS in the last seven games overall
- 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the AFC East
Buffalo:
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games against the AFC South
- 4-7-1 ATS in the last 12 games against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills Pick
After a rough start to the season, the Colts have improved a lot in the last few weeks. Their lone loss came against Tennessee in overtime, so I think the Colts have enough firepower to keep it close against the Bills.
Buffalo is a big fave for a reason. The Bills are dangerous on both sides of the ball, while Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at the moment. Buffalo should win this game straight up, but with seven and a half points on the table, I have to take the underdogs. If they find a way to run efficiently, the Colts will stand a chance of upsetting the odds here.
Pick: Take Indianapolis Colts +7.5 at -110
The Total:
Three of the Bills’ last five games and five of the Colts’ previous seven went in the over. On the other hand, the under is 7-2 in the last nine encounters between Buffalo and Indianapolis, so the betting trends are not helping a lot.
The Colts need to establish their ground game and control the clock or they’ll be in big trouble. The Bills’ defense has been outstanding all season long, so I’m backing the under on the totals. Buffalo allows only 15.0 points per game (1st in the NFL) on 83.9 rushing yards (3rd) and 190.2 passing yards (2nd).
Pick: Go under 50.0 points at -110
