The New York Jets are six point underdogs to the New England Patriots. The Jets made a late comeback against the Panthers last week only to fall short. The Patriots lost a heartbreaker to the Miami Dolphins.
Can the Jets pull off the upset? Let’s find out.
How to Play the Point Spread
The fact that the Patriots are nearly a touchdown favorite should not come as a surprise. The Pats loaded up on free agents this past offseason, bringing in Jonnu Smith, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Jalen Mills and Matthew Judon.
Let’s shift our attention to what matters most in the context of NFL gambling – injuries. The Jets will be without offensive tackle Mekhi Becton. Becton will undergo knee surgery and miss upwards of eight weeks. Wide receiver Jamison Crowder practiced on Thursday. It is Crowder’s first practice after being removed from the COVID-19 list. Crowder has also been dealing with a groin injury.
The Patriots might be without linebacker Kyle Van Noy and offensive tackle Trent Brown. Both Van Noy and Brown are starters. Pats’ cornerback Stephon Gilmore might not play for several more weeks.
The Jets will be at home for this matchup yet it probably won’t make much of a difference. The Patriots are too talented of a team to lose to the rebuilding Jets. Patriots’ gunslinger Mac Jones has looked better than expected thus far. The Patriots should roll in this one. However, the Jets have just enough talent on offense to keep the game within 10 points or less.
Gamblers should consider taking the Patriots moneyline and possibly teasing the point spread down to the Pats -2.5.
How to Play the Over/Under
The Jets’ below average defense held the Carolina Panthers to 17 points. However, the Jets coaching staff is familiar with Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold so the solid defensive performance was to be expected. However, the Patriots’ new look on offense is still a bit of a mystery so New York will likely surrender 20+ points.
The Jets should put up a couple touchdowns through the air as the Patriots’ top cornerback Stephon Gilmore is still on the PUP list. However, the Jets’ running attack will likely struggle to post 75+ yards on the ground.
The Patriots’ offense underperformed last week against the Dolphins. Look for Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Kendrick Bourne to combine for three touchdown through the air. Damien Harris and James White should be good for at least one score on the ground.
All in all, the Patriots should tally 24 to 28 points compared to the Jets’ 21, sending this game over the expected point total of 43.
